guuvestВестник университетаVestnik Universiteta1816-42772686-8415State University of Management10.26425/1816-4277-2022-7-145-154guuvest-3695Research ArticleОЦЕНКА ИНВЕСТИЦИЙINVESTMENT VALUATIONПрогнозирование инвестиций в основной капиталForecasting investments in fixed assetshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2356-4533ТереховА. М.TerekhovA. M.

Терехов Андрей Михайлович - Канд. экон. наук, доц. каф. гуманитарных и социально-экономических дисциплин

Нижний Новгород 

 Andrey M. Terekhov - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof at the Humanities and Socio-Economic Disciplines DepartmentNizhny Novgorod 

terehoff.t@yandex.ruРоссийский государственный университет правосудия (Приволжский филиал)РоссияRussian State University of Justice (Volga Branch)Russian Federation20220109202217145154Copyright © Терехов А.М., 20222022Терехов А.М.Terekhov A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/3695

В статье детализированы вопросы прогнозирования инвестиций в основной капитал. Рассмотрены теоретические аспекты (зарубежный опыт) использования различных форм прогнозных моделей на основе анализа иностранной научной литературы. Практически реализованы два разных метода прогнозирования на примере построения мультипликативной и ARIMA моделей. Сформулированы ежеквартальные прогнозы стоимости инвестиций в основной капитал на 2022–2023 гг. по Российской Федерации. Сравнение результатов моделирования показало, что расчетные значения по обеим моделям хорошо описывают динамику показателя, прогнозные значения различаются. В связи с этим построен усредненный (комбинированный) прогноз на основе результатов прогнозирования по обоим реализуемым методам. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы в практической деятельности государственных и муниципальных органов, менеджментом предприятий для поквартального прогнозирования инвестиций в основной капитал.

The article details the issues of forecasting investments in fixed assets. The theoretical aspects (foreign experience) of using various forms of predictive models based on the analysis of foreign scientific literature are considered. Two different forecasting methods have been practically implemented using the example of building multiplicative and ARIMA models. Quarterly forecasts of the cost of investments in fixed assets for 2022–2023 in the Russian Federation are formulated. A comparison of the simulation results showed that the calculated values for both models describe the dynamics of the indicator well, the forecast values differ, and therefore an average (combined) forecast is built based on the prediction results for both implemented methods. The results of the study can be used in the practical activities of state and municipal bodies, enterprise management for quarterly forecasting of investments in fixed assets.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.