guuvestВестник университетаVestnik Universiteta1816-42772686-8415State University of Management10.26425/1816-4277-2024-10-142-149guuvest-5617Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ПРОБЛЕМЫ, РЕШЕНИЯ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫECONOMICS: PROBLEMS, SOLUTIONS AND PROSPECTSГлобальная архитектура торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией: современные триггерыGlobal agricultural trade architecture: contemporary triggershttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9325-7504СмирновЕ. Н.SmirnovE. N.

Смирнов Евгений Николаевич - д-р экон. наук, зав. каф. мировой экономики и международных экономических отношений

г. Москва

Evgenii N. Smirnov - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the World Economy and International Economic Relations Department

Moscow

en_smirnov@guu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8402-4215КарелинаЕ. А.KarelinaE. A.

Карелина Екатерина Александровна - канд. экон. наук, доц. каф. мировой экономики и международных экономических отношений

г. Москва

Ekaterina A. Karelina - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof. at the World Economy and International Economic Relations Department

Moscow

opferpriesterin@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1798-4213ПлетневМ. Г.PletnevM. G.

Плетнев Максим Геннадьевич - ст. преп. каф. управления транспортными комплексами, нач. Управления координации научных исследований

г. Москва

Maxim G. Pletnev - Senior Lecturer at the Transport Complex Management Department, Head of the Department for Coordination of Scientific Research

Moscow

mg_pletnev@guu.ruГосударственный университет управленияРоссияState University of ManagementRussian Federation202404122024010142149Copyright © Смирнов Е.Н., Карелина Е.А., Плетнев М.Г., 20242024Смирнов Е.Н., Карелина Е.А., Плетнев М.Г.Smirnov E.N., Karelina E.A., Pletnev M.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/5617

Проанализированы ключевые изменения, наблюдающиеся в современной международной торговле сельскохозяйственной продукцией с позиции оценки тех вызовов, с которыми сталкиваются рынки аграрной продукции в последние годы. Рассмотрены особенности эволюции международной торговли продукцией агропромышленного комплекса, оценены основные тренды и изменения в мировом производстве и потреблении, определены среднесрочные перспективы развития. Показана трансформация мирового земельного фонда вследствие развития международной торговли, которая стала существенно диверсифицированной, отмечено сохранение дифференциации между чистыми экспортерами и чистыми импортерами сельскохозяйственной продукции. Сформулированные в ходе исследования изменения в мировом производстве и потреблении сельскохозяйственных товаров становятся ключевым триггером модернизации глобальной архитектуры международной торговли. Показано, что она останется ключевым фактором дальнейшего развития сельскохозяйственного производства, однако достигнутый процесс в либерализации экспорта и импорта является значимым с точки зрения обеспечения продовольственной безопасности наименее развитых стран-импортеров. Также установлено, что мировые цены на сельскохозяйственную продукцию стабилизируются в среднесрочной перспективе, что является важным фактором продовольственного обеспечения развивающихся стран.

The key changes observed in modern international trade in agricultural products have been analyzed from the position of assessing the challenges faced by agricultural markets in recent years. The features of the agro-industrial products international trade evolution have been considered, the main trends and changes in global production and consumption have been assessed, and medium-term development prospects have been defined. The world land fund transformation due to international trade development, which has become significantly diversified, has been shown, and the preservation of differentiation among net exporters and net importers of agricultural products has been noted. The changes in the world production and consumption of agricultural commodities formulated in the course of the study have become the key trigger for modernization of the global architecture of international trade. It has been shown that it will remain a key factor in the further development of agricultural production, but the process achieved in exports and imports liberalization is significant in terms of ensuring food security of the least developed importing countries. It has also been found that world agricultural commodity prices will stabilize in the medium term, which is an important factor in the food security of developing countries.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.