Modeling and evaluating digital economy indicators in Russia

The modeling and evaluation of the digital economy indicators in Russia, as well as the analysis of its dynamics and positions in the international arena have been carried out. The study covers key aspects of digitalization, including the contribution of the ICT sector to the GDP, the cost of organizations for digital technologies, and integral indicators in 10 categories such as e-sales, human resources, digital skills, and e-government. Based on the authors’ methodology, the digital economy contribution to Russia’s GDP has been calculated, which amounted to 2.1% (1.6 times higher than traditional estimates that consider only the ICT sector). A comparative analysis of 33 indicators of digitalization in Russia with 30 countries has been carried out, revealing Russia’s leadership in the e-commerce sector (integral indicator 0.93), as well as average positions in terms of technology accessibility and human resources. Dynamic analysis over the past five years has shown an increase in indicators after the adoption of the Digital Economy State Program, but foreign policy factors (sanctions and restrictions) have slowed down the development of certain areas, such as science and international cooperation. Cluster analysis confirmed the division of years into periods with high and low digitalization, where the last two years are assigned to the first group. The lack of a unified system for measuring the digital economy has been emphasized, which complicates its assessment. The need for an expanded approach to the digital sector definition has been substantiated. The study results demonstrate the growth potential of the Russian digital economy, but also highlight key challenges that require comprehensive solutions to strengthen its competitive position at the global level.

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