MODELING THE RISKS OF DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT BASED ON NETWORK PLANNING METHODS
https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2019-12-56-65
Abstract
A project risk modeling procedure based on the network planning method has been presented. It has been assumed, that each risk can be associated with some positive or negative event or its combination, which can be added to the network model of the project. Depending on the conditions under which risk events occur, various scenarios are developed. For each scenario, a series of Monte Carlo tests is accomplished. The value of the risk is estimated based on the expected values of the traditional financial and temporal characteristics of the project. The described procedure is checked on an illustrative example of the infrastructure project, which consists in laying a section of the pipeline along the seabed. The software implementation of discrete optimization algorithms for the project plan and simulation tests has been implemented in the framework of an automated scenario modeling system using Python.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: The work was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for basic research (grant no. 18-010-01151).
About the Author
A. I. Denisova
State University of Management
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Postgraduate student,
Moscow
References
1. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii “O natsional’nykh tselyakh i strategicheskikh zadachakh razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2024 goda” ot 07.05.2018 g. № 204 (red. ot 19.07.2018 g.) [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2018 № 204 “On the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024” (in edition dated July 19, 2018)], SPS “Konsul’tantPlyus”. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_297432/ (accessed 25.10.2019).
2. Postanovlenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 12.10.2017 g. № 1242 (red. ot 08.06.2019) “O razrabotke, realizatsii i ob otsenke effektivnosti otdel’nykh gosudarstvennykh programm Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 12, 2017 № 1242 “On the development, implementation and evaluation of the effectiveness of individual state programs of the Russian Federation” (in edition dated June 8, 2019)], SPS “KonsultantPlyus”. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_280803/ (accessed 25.10.2019).
3. Natsional’nyi standart Rossiiskoi Federatsii GOST R ISO 31000-2010 Menedzhment riska. Printsipy i rukovodstvo ot 01.09.2011 g. [National standard of the Russian Federation GOST R ISO 31000-2010 Risk management. Principles and guidelines dated September 1, 2011)], Tekhekspert. Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200089640 (accessed 25.10.2019).
4. Akh”yudzha Kh. N. Setevye metody upravleniya v proektirovanii i proizvodstve [Network management techniques in design and production], per. s angl. B. S. Lunyakova, V. M. Simonova; pod red. V. V. Kalashnikova, Moscow, Mir, 1979, 622 р.
5. Bounegra A. B. Upravlenie riskami kreditovaniya innovatsii [Innovation lending risk management]: avtoreferat dis. ... kandidata ekonomicheskikh nauk : 08.00.10 / Gos. un-t upr., Moscow, 2005, 27 p.
6. Burkov V. N., Burkova I. V. Metod setevogo programmirovaniya v upravlenii tselevymi programmami [Network programming method in managing target programs], Avtomatika i telemekhanika [Automation and Remote Control], 2014, I. 3, pp. 73-86.
7. Vilenskii P. L., Livshits V. N., Smolyak S. A. Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov. Teoriya i praktika: uchebnoe posobie [Evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects. Theory and Practice: textbook], Moscow, Delo, 2008, 888 р.
8. Gracheva M. V., Sekerin A. B., Afanas’ev A. M. Risk-menedzhment investitsionnogo proekta [Risk management of the investment project], Moscow, Yuniti-Dana, 2009, 544 р.
9. Gel’rud Ya. D. Obobshchennye stokhasticheskie setevye modeli dlya upravleniya kompleksnymi proektami [Generalized stochastic network models for managing complex projects], Vestnik Novosibirskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Matematika, Mekhanika, Informatika [Novosibirsk State University Bulletin. Series: Mathematics, Mechanics, Computer Science], 2010, Vol. 10, I. 4, pр.36-51.
10. Denisova A. I. Analiz informatsionno-analiticheskogo obespecheniya proektnoi deyatel’nosti podderzhki gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [Analysis of information and analytical support of project activity of public management], Vestnik universiteta, 2018, I. 12, pр. 15-22.
11. Pisareva O. M. Analiz sostoyaniya i kharakteristika potentsiala razvitiya instrumentariya strategicheskogo planirovaniya v usloviyakh tsifrovoi transformatsii ekonomiki i upravleniya [Analysis of the state and characteristics of the development potential of strategic planning tools in the digital transformation conditions of the economy and management], MIR (Modernizatsiya. Innovatsii. Razvitie) [MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)], 2018, Vol. 9, I. 4, pр. 502-529.
12. Pisareva O. M Identifikatsiya priznakov pravonarushenii v ramkakh risk-orientirovannoi modeli upravleniya litsenziruemoi khozyaistvennoi deyatel’nost’yu [Identification of signs of offenses in the framework of the risk-oriented model of licensed economic activity management], Strategicheskoe planirovanie i razvitie predpriyatii: materialy Semnadtsatogo vserossiiskogo simpoziuma. Moskva,
13. 12-13 apr. 2016 g. [Strategic planning and development of enterprises: proceedings of the 17-th All-Russian Symposium. Moscow, April 12-13, 2016], Pod red. G. B. Kleinera, Tsentral’nyi ekonomiko-matematicheskii institut RAN, 2016, pp. 157-160.
14. Pisareva O. M., Denisova A. I. Matematicheskoe i komp’yuternoe modelirovanie riskov litsenziruemykh tovarnykh rynkov Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Mathematical and computer modeling of risks of licensed commodity markets of the Russian Federation], Matematicheskoe i komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v ekonomike, strakhovanii i upravlenii riskami: materialy VI Mezhdunarodnoi molodezhnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Saratov, 08-11 noyab. 2017 g. [Mathematical and computer modelling in economics, insurance and risk management: proceedings of VI International Youth Scientific and Practiсal Conference. Saratov, November 08-11, 2017], Voronezh, Nauchnaya kniga, 2017, pp. 70-75.
15. Makarov O. Podvodnye truboprovody: kak eto rabotaet [Underwater pipelines: how it works], Populyarnaya Mekhanika [Popular Mechanics]. Available at: https://www.popmech.ru/technologies/14445-podvodnye-niti/ (accessed 25.10.2019).
Review
For citations:
Denisova A.I. MODELING THE RISKS OF DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT BASED ON NETWORK PLANNING METHODS. Vestnik Universiteta. 2019;1(12):56-65. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2019-12-56-65
Views:
563
Email this article 