FORESIGHT AS A TOOL OF TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PUBLIC JOINT STOCK COMPANY “GAZPROM” IN THE ERA OF DIGITALIZATION
https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2020-4-54-62
Abstract
The issues of presenting the basic prerequisites for forecasting and planning tools for managing an organization based on the foresight method, – have been highlighted. The strategic planning mechanism of PJSC Gazprom has been described, the place of foresight research in the formation of a long-term strategy has been reflected, and interaction with the innovation environment has been reflected. Five stages of foresight research and their filling have been presented. The sequence of stages of foresight research has been described. A generalized picture of collecting the necessary information for conducting a foresight study and forming a pool of experts from the preliminary registry on thematic selected areas has been presented. A list of criteria for assessing the prospects of technologies, as well as the sequence of their selection in accordance with the system of prospects indexes of technological developments for further updating the organization’s strategy, – has been considered. A graphical model of the results of technology assessment for their use in the strategic planning of the organization. A digital model that makes a decision on the choice of the necessary technologies based on semantic analysis of big data – IFORA has been considered. A comparison of information input and applied methods has been made. When preparing the article, such research methods as analysis, synthesis, and generalization were used.
About the Authors
V. V. Degtyareva
State University of Management
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Degtyareva Viktoria Candidate of Economic Sciences
Moscow
D. A. Lozhnikova
“Niigazekonomika” LTD
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Lozhnikova Daria Specialist
Moscow
References
1. Golubev S. S., Chebotarev S. S., Chibinev A. M., Yusupov R. M. Metodologiya nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo prognozirovaniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Methodology of scientific and technological forecasting of the Russian Federation in modern conditions]. Moscow, “Kreativnaya ekonomika” Publ., 2018. 282 p. DOI: 10.18334/9785912922244.
2. Bereznoi A. V. Korporativnyi forsait v strategii transnatsional›nogo biznesa [Corporate foresight in the strategy of transnational business]. Forsait [Foresight], 2017, vol. 11, no 1. pp. 9-22. DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2017.1.9.22.
3. Volkov A. T., Degtyareva V. V., Dunenkova E. N., Kiselev B. N., Lyapina S. Yu. Povyshenie kachestva ekonomicheskikh mekhanizmov innovatsionnogo razvitiya strany [Improving the quality of economic mechanisms for innovative development of the country]. Vestnik universiteta, 2012, no. 11-1, pp. 9-18.
4. Gibadullin A. A. Gosudarstvennoe regulirovanie otrasli elektroenergetiki [State regulation of the electric power industry]. Gumanitarnye, sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie i obshchestvennye nauki [Humanities, Socio-Economic and Social Sciences], 2013, no. 2. pp. 171-174.
5. Degtyareva V. V., Lozhnikova D. A. Korporativnyi forsait: osobennosti, metodologiya i effektivnostʼ [Corporate foresight: features, methodology and effectiveness]. Materialy II-i vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii “Prioritetnye i perspektivnye napravleniya nauchno-tekhnicheskogo razvitiya Rossijskoi Federatsii” [Proceedings of the II-th all-Russian scientific and practical conference “Priority and perspective directions of scientific and technical development of the Russian Federation”], Moscow, 2019, pp. 18-21.
6. Zhukov V. V., Lyapina S. Yu., Tarasova V. N. Formirovanie bazovykh kompetentsii dlya budushchei inzhenernoi deyatelʼnosti v usloviyakh uskoreniya nauchno-tekhnicheskogo progressa [Formation of basic competencies for future engineering activities in the conditions of acceleration of scientific and technical progress]. Innovatsii [Innovations], 2017, no. 11 (229), pp. 88-96.
7. Kamchatova E. Yu. Strategicheskie aspekty razvitiya elektroenergeticheskoi otrasli [Strategic aspects of electric power industry development]. Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami [Journal of Management of economic systems]. 2014, no. 12, p. 77.
8. Ladykova T. I, Vasilʼeva I. A., Zavisha E. N. Forsait-tekhnologii v prognozirovanii innovatsionnogo razvitiya regiona [Foresight technologies in forecasting innovative development of the region]. Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami [Management of economic systems], 2015, no. 4 (76). Available at: http:cyberleninka.ru /article/n/forsayt-tehnologii-v-prognozirovanii-innovatsionnogo-razvitiya-regiona (accessed 05.02.2020).
9. Linik V. Yu., Linnik Yu. N. Usloviya i osnovnye rezulʼtaty razvitiya otraslei toplivno-energeticheskogo kompleksa po itogam pervogo etapa realizatsii energeticheskoi strategii Rossii na period do 2030 goda [Conditions and main results of development of the fuel and energy complex sectors following the results of the first stage of implementation of the energy strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030]. Vestnik universiteta, 2018, no. 11, pp. 77-83.
10. Sokolov A. V., Chulok A. A Dolgosrochnyi prognoz nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossii na period do 2030 goda: klyuchevye osobennosti [Long-term forecast of scientific and technological development of Russia for the period up to 2030: key features]. Forsait [Foresight], 2012, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 12-25.
11. Tinyakova V. I., Ratushnaya E. A. Problemy obosnovaniya investicionnyh reshenii: adekvatnostʼ, korrektnostʼ, prognoz [Problems of justification of investment decisions: adequacy, correctness, forecast]. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’ [National interests: priorities and security], 2010, vol. 6, no. 7 (64), pp. 73-77.
12. Sharipov F. F., Rodionov A. N. Analiz opredelenij, priznakov i svojstv upravleniya proektami [Analysis of project management definitions, attributes, and properties]. Vestnik universiteta, 2013, no. 19, pp. 112-119.
13. Shcherbakov K. V Forsait-tekhnologii kak instrument prognozirovaniya innovatsionnogo razvitiya regionov [Foresight technologies as a tool for forecasting innovative development of regions]. Izvestiya Tul’skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomicheskie i yuridicheskie nauki [Proceedings of the Tula state University. Economic and legal Sciences], 2017, no. 4-1, pp. 241-247.
14. Sistema analiza bol’shikh dannykh Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki usilit prognoznyi kontur OPK [The system of big data analysis of the Higher school of Economics will strengthen the forecast contour of the defense industry]. Available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/206254463.html (accessed 01.02.2020).
15. Sinhronizaciya forsajtov v Rossii i Kitae [Syncing foresight in Russia and China]. Available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/keywords/206254413/ (accessed 01.02.2020).
Review
For citations:
Degtyareva V.V., Lozhnikova D.A. FORESIGHT AS A TOOL OF TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PUBLIC JOINT STOCK COMPANY “GAZPROM” IN THE ERA OF DIGITALIZATION. Vestnik Universiteta. 2020;(4):54-62. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2020-4-54-62
Views:
770
Email this article 