Top.Mail.Ru
Preview

Vestnik Universiteta

Advanced search

JUSTIFICATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF A SET OF MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REGIONAL PROGRAMS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ASSOCIATED RISKS

https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2020-12-87-94

Abstract

The subject of the study is Federal programs of socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The paper considers the computational and analytical tools for the development and implementation of support for development programs and shows the need for its improvement. The author presents the structure of the corresponding software in the form of a model complex for the formation and evaluation of regional development program options. The article gives the main indicators necessary for calculations. The study considers the methods of obtaining data for the formation, correction, and evaluation of the implementation of programs. The author proposes the scenario modeling apparatus as a tool for variable calculations to justify stable and satisfactory planning solutions. The article justifies the necessity of taking into account the impact of risks in the process of forming and implementing the program and proposes methods of their accounting. The paper proposes to use an ontological model for organizing the storage and presentation of information about the sources and consequences of risks.

About the Author

A. I. Denisova
State University of Management
Russian Federation

Postgraduate Student, 

Moscow



References

1. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28.06.2014 № 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii (s izmeneniyami na 31 iyulya 2020 goda)” [Federal law “Оn Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation No. 172-FZ dated on June 28, 2014 (as amended, dated on July 31, 2020)”]. Legal reference system “ConsultantPlus”. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_164841 (accessed 25.09.2020).

2. Postanovlenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 02.08.2010 № 588 (red. ot 16.04.2020) “Ob utverzhdenii Poryadka razrabotki, realizatsii i otsenki effektivnosti gosudarstvennykh program Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation “Оn Approval of the Procedure for Development, Implementation and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of State Programs of the Russian Federation” No. 588 dated on August 2, 2010 (as amended, dated on April 16, 2020)]. Legal reference system “ConsultantPlus”. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_103481/ (accessed 25.09.2020).

3. Prikaz Ministerstva ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF ot 7 fevralya 2019 g. № 54 “Ob utverzhdenii formy predstavleniya svodnoi informatsii o khode realizatsii gosudarstvennoi programmy Rossiiskoi Federatsii na prioritetnykh territoriyakh, v tom chisle po sub’’ektam Rossiiskoi Federatsii (za isklyucheniem gosudarstvennykh programm, meropriyatiya kotorykh ne imeyut territorial’noi privyazki i (ili) predmet kotorykh isklyuchaet vozmozhnost’ ikh realizatsii na prioritetnykh territoriyakh)” [Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation “On Approval of the Form for Submitting Summary Information on the Implementation of the State Program of the Russian Federation in Priority Territories, including for the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation (with the Exception of State Programs whose Activities do not have a Territorial Reference and (or) the Subject of which Excludes the Possibility of their Implementation in Priority Territories)” No. 54 dated on February 7, 2019]. Legal reference system “Garant”. Available at: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/72109866/ (accessed 04.10.2020).

4. Natsional’nyi standart Rossiiskoi Federatsii GOST R 51901.22-2012 “Menedzhment riska. Reestr riska. Pravila postroeniya (Pereizdanie) (data vvedeniya – 01.12.2013)” [National standard of the Russian Federation GOST R 51901.22-2012 “Risk management. Risk register. Rules of construction (republication) (date of introduction – December 1, 2013)]. Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200100075 (accessed 04.09.2020).

5. Agafonov V. A. Tselevoi aspekt razrabotki kompleksnykh programm regional’nogo razvitiya i effektivnost’ gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [Target aspect of development of the integrated programs of regional development and public administration efficiency]. Ekonomicheskaya politika [Economic Policy], 2014, no. 10, pp. 3-16.

6. Gamukin V. V. Kombinatorika riskov byudzhetnoi sistemy [Combinatorics of budget system risks]. Finansy i kredit [Finance and Credit], 2015, no. 22 (646), pp. 28-39.

7. Gamukin V. V. Risk-granitsy nesbalansirovannosti regional’nykh byudzhetov [Risk-limits of of regional budget imbalance]. Federalizm [Federalism], 2012, no. 3 (67), pp. 101-108.

8. Glaz’ev S. Yu., Lokosov V. V. Otsenka predel’no kriticheskikh znachenii pokazatelei sostoyaniya rossiiskogo obshchestva i ikh ispol’zovanie v upravlenii sotsial’no-ekonomicheskim razvitiem [Evaluation of extremely critical indicators of the state of Russian society and managing social and economic development with them]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 2012, no. 4, pp. 22-41.

9. Gracheva M. V. Risk-menedzhment investitsionnogo proekta [Risk management of the investment project]. Moscow, Yuniti-Dana, 2009, 544 р.

10. Denisova A. I. Modelirovanie riskov razrabotki i realizatsii infrastrukturnogo proekta na osnove metodov setevogo planirovaniya [Modeling the risks of developing and implementing the infrastructure project based on network planning methods]. Vestnik Universiteta, 2019, no. 12, pp. 56-65.

11. Kul’ba V., Kovalevskii S. (red.) Upravlenie i kontrol’realizatsii sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh tselevykh programm [Management and control of the implementation of socio-economic target programs]. Moscow, Librokom, 2009, 400 p.

12. Kurochka P. N., Cherednichenko N. D. Zadachi resursnogo planirovaniya v stroitel’nom proekte [Tasks of resource planning in a construction project]. V sbornike: XII vserossiiskoe soveshchanie po problemam upravleniya VSPU-2014 [In the collection: XII All-Russian Meeting on Management Issues VSPU-2014]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V. A. Trapeznikova RAN, 2014, pp. 4745-4753.

13. Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A. R. Sotsial’noe modelirovanie – novyi komp’yuternyi proryv (agent-orientirovannye modeli) [Social modeling is a new computer breakthrough (agent-oriented models)]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2013, 295 p.

14. Pisareva O. M. Stsenarnoe modelirovanie v upravlenii razrabotkoi sistemy krupnomasshtabnykh investitsionnykh programm [Scenario modeling in managing the development of a large-scale investment program system]. Upravlenie razvitiem krupnomasshtabnykh sistem (MLSD’2011): Materialy Pyatoi mezhdunarodnoi konferentsii. Tom I [Management of the Large-Scale Systems Development (MLSD’2011): Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference. Volume I]. Moscow, IPU RAN, 2011, pp. 63-66.

15. Pisareva O. M., Mednikov D. N., Denisova A. I. Ontologicheskoe modelirovanie oblasti normativno-pravovogo obespecheniya upravleniya v ramkakh polnomochii FOIV/ROIV [Ontological modeling of the field of normative and legal support of management within the framework of the powers of Federal/Regional Executive Authorities]. Materialy 1-i Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. “Shag v budushchee: Iskusstvennyi intellekt i tsifrovaya ekonomika” [Proceedings of the 1-st International Scientific and Practical Conference “Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy”]. Moscow, Gosudarstvennyi universitet upravleniya, 2017, pp. 343-351.

16. Tatevosyan G. M., Pisareva O. M., Sedova S. V. Optimizatsiya sostava i parametrov investitsionnykh programm razvitiya v usloviyakh mnogokriterial’nogo vybora [Optimization of the composition and parameters of investment development programs in conditions of multi-criteria choice]. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov: Teoriya i praktika institutsional’nykh preobrazovanii v Rossii [Collection ofscientific papers: Theory and Practice of Institutional Transformation in Russia], pod red. B. A. Erznkyana, 2011, I. 22, pp. 146-154.

17. Bank dannykh “Normativno-pravovye akty, zaregistrirovannye v Ministerstve yustitsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Data Bank “Normative and legal acts registered with the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation”]. Available at: https://minjust.consultant.ru/ (accessed 30.09.2020).

18. Ono M., Williams B. C. Iterative risk allocation: a new approach to robust model predictive control with a joint chance constraint. Proceedings of the 47th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control Cancun. Mexico, December 9-11, 2008, pp. 3427-3432.

19. Seyedhoseini S. M., Noori S., Hatefi M. A. An integrated methodology for assessment and selection of the project risk response actions. Risk Analysis, 2009, no. 29 (5), pp. 752-763.

20. Zhang Y., Zhi-Ping F. An optimization method for selecting project risk response strategies. International Journal of Project Management, 2014, no. 32, pp. 412-422.


Review

For citations:


Denisova A.I. JUSTIFICATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF A SET OF MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REGIONAL PROGRAMS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ASSOCIATED RISKS. Vestnik Universiteta. 2020;(12):87-94. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2020-12-87-94

Views: 384


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 1816-4277 (Print)
ISSN 2686-8415 (Online)