Demographic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation in the current epidemiological conditions

The relevance of the study is due to the need to assess the scale of the deep and often unpredictable influence of epidemiological, economic and political factors on key demographic indicators. Assessment of the current state as well as prospects for the development of the demographic situation in the regions of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as RF, Russia) will allow timely identification of problems and development of measures to mitigate them, making sound strategic decisions in the interests of a particular region of the RF. The purpose of the study is to analyse and forecast the demographic situation in the regions of Russia. To achieve this goal, the article uses data visualisation methods, cluster and regression analysis, forecasting series with a structural shift. The results of the cluster analysis, indicating the territorial heterogeneity of the constituent entities of the RF in terms of demographic status, are used in an econometric model that makes it possible to assess the impact of a number of factors on mortality. In particular, it is found that population density, the proportion of the population over working age, that is, factors that, in turn, are associated with the consequences of coronavirus infection and its negative impact on the elderly population, have a significant impact on the overall mortality rate. The death toll forecast showed that the pandemic contributed more than 53 thousand deaths per month, including not only deaths from coronavirus infection, but also deaths indirectly related to the introduction of restrictions on planned hospitalisation, a drop in the standard of living of the population, etc. Mortality decreased to the level of mortality observed before the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-2023, but already in January 2025 the number of deaths may exceed 170 thousand people per month. Further studies are planned to model and forecast indicators of the demographic state of the regions of the RF based on various scenarios for the development of the epidemiological situation as well as considering the economic and foreign policy situations.

1. Bantikova O.I., Tuktamysheva L.M. Assessment of the state of natural population movement in the regions of the Russian Federation. Bulletin of NGIEI. 2021;3(118):125–137. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.24412/2227-9407-2021-3-125-137

2. Babich S.G. Worsening of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation in modern conditions. Economic sciences. 2021;199:13–19. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.14451/1.199.13

3. Karpenko O.A. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on anxiety, depression and distress – online survey results amid the pandemic in Russia. Consortium Psychiatricum. 2020;1(1):8–20. https://doi.org/10.17650/2712-7672-2020-1-1-8-20

4. Luppi F., Arpino B., Rosina A. The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK. Demographic Research. 2020;43(47):1399–1412. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.43.47

5. Belgaraeva A.T. Socio-economic aspects of reproductive behavior in the family. Innovations. Science. Education. 2021;32:2160–2166. (In Russian).

6. Gruzdeva O.A. On the features of demographic policy in Russia during the pandemic. Actual problems and prospects for economic development: Russian and foreign experience. 2021;1(33):12–16. (In Russian).

7. Meyerowitz-Katz G., Merone L. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020;101(14):138–148. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464

8. Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova E.V., Podlevskikh Yu.L. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Russian regions. Proceedings of the Karelian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021;7:116–128. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17076/them1421

9. Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova E.V. The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russian regions: a comparison of changes in mortality rates. Journal of the Siberian Federal University. Series: Humanities. 2021;14(7):1028–1038. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17516/1997-1370-0782

10. Zemtsov S.P., Baburin V.L. COVID-19: spatial dynamics and factors of spread across Russian regions. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographical series. 2020;4:485–505. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620040159

11. Zlotnikov A.G. Mortality in Belarus during the COVID-19 pandemic. DEMIS. Demographic studies. 2021;1(2):28–46. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2021.1.2.2

12. Polozhikhina M.A. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and areas of risk reduction: preliminary results of 2020. Economic and social problems of Russia. 2021;2(46):50–73. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31249/espr/2021.02.03

13. Bobylev S.N. Environmental consequences of COVID-19 on the global and Russian economics. Population and Economics. 2020;4(2):43–48. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.4.e53279

14. Parygina S.A. Comparative characteristics of rank nonparametric criteria for testing hypotheses and features of their application to processing data of various natures. Natural and technical sciences. 2015;6(84):44–48. (In Russian).

15. Linden A. Conducting interrupted time-series analysis for singleand multiple-group comparisons. The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics and Stata. 2015;15(2):480–500. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1501500208

16. Zakshevsky V.G., Gavrilova Z.V. Modern challenges of rural development: COVID-19 and SVO. Economy, Labor, Management in Agriculture. 2023;2(96):4–12. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.33938/232-4

17. Reutov E.V., Zakharov V.M., Vangorodskaya S.A., Reutova M.N. Scenarios of demographic development of rural territories of the Central Black Earth Region in the context of a special military operation. Power. 2023;31(3):192–198. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v31i3.9656

18. Kontis V., Bennett J.E., Rashid T. Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries. Nature Medicine. 2020;26(12):1919–1928. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0

19. Khasanova R.R., Zubarevich N.V. Fertility, mortality and the situation in regions at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic. Economic development of Russia. 2021;28(1):77–87. (In Russian).