Modeling an aggregated indicator of regional economic security level through the prism of key determinants

The interrelationships of economic, demographic, and social factors determining regional economic security have been studied using the Krasnodar Region case. The study covers the period 2012-2022 and includes an analysis of 12 significant indicators such as gross regional product, labor productivity index, and unemployment rate. Based on the correlation analysis, key indicators have been selected for building regression models. Based on the regression modeling results, it has been found that the selected indicators have a nonlinear relationship with gross regional product. A factor analysis has been carried out, as a result of which three groups of factors affecting regional economic security have been identified, with the most significant factors being from the Demographic and Economic Indicators group. Data clustering has demonstrated structural changes in regional economy related to integration into international markets. Binning has been carried out, according to the results of which it has become possible to draw a conclusion about the relationship between unemployment rate and regional economic wellbeing. A logistic regression has been built, and a binary model has been obtained for predicting unemployment rate with a predictive power of 76.6%. Based on the conducted analyses, the most significant indicators for regional economic security have been identified: gross regional product, total fertility rate, and share of high-tech industries in gross regional product. The need for an integrated approach to ensuring economic security has been emphasized, and attention has been focused on supporting innovative sectors and balanced economic development.

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