Measuring the contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP in Algeria:a study using the ARDL model

Abstract

The contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP growth in Algeria over the period 1999–2022, employing the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model as the primary analytical tool has been investigated. The purpose of the study is to assess the short- and long-run dynamics between agricultural output and economic performance. The preliminary analysis showed that the variables used in the study exhibited different levels of stationarity, which required proper lag selection. The bounds testing approach confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship, indicating that short-term fluctuations in the agricultural sector can translate into sustained long-term impacts on GDP. The most appropriate model has been found to be ARDL (3,3), reflecting a dynamic and significant interaction between agriculture and economic growth. These findings emphasize the critical role of agriculture as a driver of sustainable development in Algeria. The study suggests that targeted investments and strategic reforms in the agricultural sector could reinforce its role in economic diversification, food security, and long-term stability.